The Last Time We Faced THIS was 2008 —Why We’re Headed For a “Dangerous Recession”
Edward Dowd explains the signals pointing to a massive recession worse than that of 2008.
The U.S. is on the brink of a dangerous recession in 2025, warns Edward Dowd, Founding Partner of Phinance Technologies. In this episode of our 2025 Outlook Series, Dowd joins Daniela Cambone to dissect the economic challenges ahead, pointing to unprecedented government spending and migration issues as key factors dragging down the economy. “Immigration has been the elephant in the room for the last two years. That's one of the major reasons President Trump was elected” he says. Dowd also delves into the role of central banks and fiscal stimulus, predicting that inflationary pressures will drive gold higher in 2025, reminiscent of the economic turbulence of the 1970s.
Summary with Timestamps & Key Takeaways:
00:48 – 2025 Recession Forecast & Edward Dowd’s Report
Edward Dowd warns of a “dangerous recession” akin to 2008, driven by Trump’s proposed immigration crackdown ending a key economic stimulus: mass illegal immigration.
Key Argument: Illegal immigration and unchecked government spending delayed an expected 2023–2024 recession.
02:11 – Economic Impact of Immigration
Immigration boosted short-term growth (labor force, consumer spending) but is unsustainable.
Prediction: Trump’s policies will trigger a correction, exposing economic fragility.
06:46 – Real Estate & Global Banking Risks
Falling property prices in Europe/China threaten banking systems.
U.S. “blue states” (high illegal immigrant populations) may see real estate bargains.
09:02 – WHO/Paris Agreement Exit & Fauci Pardon
Dowd supports Trump’s plan to exit WHO/Paris Agreement, calling WHO “totalitarian.”
Criticizes potential Fauci pardon as implicit guilt admission.
10:52 – Stock Market & Flawed Economic Data
Stock market no longer a reliable leading indicator.
QCEW wage data discrepancies suggest GDP revisions; Dowd blames “bureaucratic incompetence/fraud.”
12:34 – Looming Economic Crisis
Warning: Trump inherits a deficit-driven crisis. Real wages fell 2%, credit access tightens, and government debt balloons.
Markets (especially bonds) face instability.
16:06 – Fed Policy & Monetary Risks
Fed’s money-printing worsens debt; rate cuts offer no long-term stability.
Short-term market calm ≠ recovery.
17:58 – Global Economic Weakness
Germany/Japan in recession; global real estate slump risks contagion.
Advice for Individuals: Hold cash, avoid debt, diversify into gold.
18:54 – Gold Prices & Inflation/Deflation Cycle
Rising gold prices signal long-term inflation after a brief deflationary period.
Political moves (e.g., tariffs) may reignite inflation.
20:49 – Drones & Trade Wars
Drones dismissed as geopolitical “distraction.”
Trump’s tariffs framed as negotiation tactics, not full-blown trade war triggers.
23:43 – Conclusion & Call to Action
Reiterates recession risks and urges preparedness.
Promotes ITM Trading again and teases future content.
